Weekly Market Recap — Week of March 30–April 3, 2026

The Big Picture

U.S. equities staged a relief rally this week, with the S&P 500 snapping a five-week losing streak. It was a hard-fought win. The S&P 500 rose to close at 6,582.69 on Thursday, while a barrel of U.S. crude oil surged 11.3% to $111.54, briefly touching $114 at its intraday high.

Index Performance

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.4%, the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow added 3%; the first winning stretch for major indices since the start of the Iran conflict. The gains didn't come easy. At their session lows on Thursday, the Dow was down more than 600 points (1.4%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively, before recovering sharply.

What Drove Markets

The week's story was dominated by two competing forces: geopolitical hope and oil-market fear.

Early-week comments from President Trump helped fuel market hopes that an offramp from the conflict with Iran could be developing. Trump indicated the U.S. and Iran were engaged in serious discussions to end the conflict, suggesting the war could be over in two to three weeks.

Crude oil prices have been the main force behind sharp swings for stocks globally, with shipping traffic severely curtailed in the Strait of Hormuz — where a fifth of the world's traded oil passes through during peacetime. On Thursday, markets were briefly rescued when Iranian state media reported that Iran is working with Oman on a protocol to "monitor" ships passing through the Strait, helping equities recover from steep intraday losses.

Economic Data

U.S. economic data releases continued to signal resilience, with manufacturing and retail sales both coming in better than expected. The marquee report of the week arrived Friday morning; though markets were closed for Good Friday. As the U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, nearly three times the forecast of around 60,000, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% and wage growth slowed. The strong print is likely to support the Federal Reserve's patient stance, even as forward-looking growth and inflation risks continue to linger.

Fed & Rates

Over the past month, market probabilities have shifted dramatically toward no rate cuts in 2026. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market now assigns an 80.6% probability that the Fed will remain on hold throughout the year, up from just 9.9% one month ago.

Notable Movers

Tesla fell more than 5% on disappointing quarterly delivery numbers. Travel stocks (airlines and cruise operators) fell under pressure as rising fuel costs squeezed margins. Energy stocks were a bright spot, rising alongside crude. Globalstar jumped 13% after a report that Amazon may pursue an acquisition.

🗓️ Q1 2026 In Review

A quarter that began focused on AI developments and expected interest rate cuts ended up being defined by the Iran war and an oil price shock. One of the more turbulent three-month stretches in recent memory.

The S&P 500 closed the quarter down roughly 4%, its weakest quarterly performance since Q3 2022. The Nasdaq fared worse, falling nearly 7%, reflecting both geopolitical concerns and ongoing uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence. The damage was concentrated at the top: Microsoft tumbled 23.3%. Its worst quarterly showing since Q4 2008. While Nvidia fell 6.5%.

The quarter played out in two distinct acts. Equity markets started 2026 on a strong note, with broad leadership and participation. That changed in late February with the onset of the conflict in Iran, causing energy prices to spike sharply and introducing volatility across both equity and fixed income markets. Brent crude jumped 63% in March alone, the largest monthly increase in four decades.

Not everything fell. Energy was the standout sector, surging 38% for the quarter and the only sector to post positive returns in March. Small and mid-cap stocks demonstrated relative resilience, with the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 finishing the quarter with gains of 3% and 4%, respectively. Commodities broadly were the top-performing asset class, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index up 24.4%.

The silver lining heading into Q2: the oil shock has not yet dented corporate earnings expectations, estimates have actually risen through quarter-end, with nearly 13% earnings growth projected for Q1 2026.

Week Ahead — April 6–10, 2026

The Calendar

Monday brings the ISM Services PMI for March. Tuesday sees preliminary Durable Orders data. Wednesday features the release of FOMC Minutes, along with earnings from Constellation Brands and Delta Air Lines. Thursday brings the Q4 GDP final, Initial Claims, the PCE price index, and Personal Income data. Friday closes the week with the Consumer Price Index for March.

Key Themes to Watch

Inflation front and center. With WTI oil near $111/barrel, analysts at Bank of America expect headline inflation to approach 4% year-over-year in the coming months. Friday's CPI print will be the most closely watched data point of the week.

FOMC Minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinized for any hints about how Fed officials are balancing the conflict's dual pressure on growth and inflation.

Iran war developments remain the dominant wildcard. President Trump's anticipated lifting of the ban on attacking Iranian energy infrastructure on April 6 could either hasten a resolution or significantly escalate the situation.

Earnings begin to ramp. Delta Air Lines reports Wednesday. A key early read on the travel sector and the real-world impact of surging fuel costs.

Strategist Pulse

Earnings growth expectations remain a potential tailwind for U.S. equities. FactSet projects S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth of 13.2% for Q1 and 17.4% for the full year 2026. Investors will have to weigh still-solid fundamentals against geopolitical, inflationary, and economic growth uncertainties. Investors appear hopeful the sell-off is coming to an end, though it's worth noting that Warren Buffett said this week that stocks are not yet cheap enough for him to step in.

Bottom line: Q1 closed the books on a jarring reset; from AI euphoria to oil shock in just 90 days. The market bought itself a much-needed exhale to end the week, but the Iran conflict, oil above $110, and a Fed on hold make for a fragile foundation heading into Q2. Friday's CPI and any geopolitical developments over the holiday weekend will set the tone for what comes next.

Weekly Market Recap Link

Work With Me

Important Disclosures

 Disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Please review your specific circumstances with us before making any changes to your portfolio.