Weekly Market Recap

Week Ending February 28, 2026

THIS WEEK IN REVIEW

Markets ended February on a down note as investors grappled with disappointing Nvidia earnings, escalating tariff uncertainty, and hotter-than-expected inflation data. The S&P 500 declined approximately 0.5% for the week and finished February down nearly 1%, its worst monthly performance since March 2025. The Nasdaq fell over 1% for the week and dropped more than 3% for the month, while the Dow managed a modest 0.2% gain in February despite Friday's sharp selloff.

Monday: Tariff Uncertainty Resurfaces

The week began under pressure as President Trump announced plans to raise global tariffs to 15% from the previous 10%, despite last week's Supreme Court ruling striking down his emergency tariff authority. This policy reversal sparked a 2% surge in gold prices as investors sought safe havens, while tech stocks sank on renewed trade concerns.

Cybersecurity stocks fell sharply after Anthropic unveiled a new AI-powered code-scanning tool that detects software flaws and suggests fixes, raising fresh fears about AI disruption. CrowdStrike and other security names declined as investors worried about obsolescence. The VIX volatility index jumped 10.1% to 21.01, signaling heightened investor anxiety.

Bitcoin continued its slide, falling to $63,067 from its January start of $88,806, heading toward its worst month since 2022. As one analyst noted, despite the "digital gold" narrative, Bitcoin continues trading as a risk asset, with capital rotating toward traditional safe havens during periods of macro fear.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Nvidia Anticipation Builds

Markets rebounded Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings report. The S&P 500 gained 0.81% Wednesday to 6,946, while the Nasdaq advanced 1.26% to 23,152. Software stocks rallied, with beaten-down names climbing as investors positioned for potential relief.

Advanced Micro Devices jumped 9% on Meta Platforms' announcement of plans to spend billions on AMD gear as part of its $600 billion AI infrastructure buildout through 2028. The move signaled continued strong demand for AI chips beyond just Nvidia.

Consumer confidence improved in February, providing some economic support. However, President Trump's State of the Union address Tuesday night offered few specifics on addressing affordability concerns, instead boasting about economic growth despite Q4 GDP coming in at just 1.4%.

Wednesday Evening: Nvidia Disappoints

Nvidia reported after the bell Wednesday, posting earnings of $1.62 per share on revenue of $68.13 billion, both exceeding estimates. However, the results failed to meet the market's lofty expectations. While the company delivered strong growth in its core data center business, investors expressed concerns around a deal with OpenAI and questioned whether the massive AI spending by hyperscalers would continue translating into Nvidia's growth.

Thursday: Post-Nvidia Selloff

Thursday brought sharp declines as Nvidia shares plunged over 5% in their worst day since April, despite beating estimates. The broader chip sector followed, with Broadcom, Lam Research, Western Digital, and Applied Materials all sliding. The S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,909, while the Nasdaq declined 1.18% to 22,878.

As one investment officer noted, "The market is very much in 'prove it' mode, and Nvidia just didn't quite 'prove it' with these earnings." The disappointing reaction highlighted investors' growing skepticism about AI valuations and massive capital expenditures.

Interestingly, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pushed back against software disruption fears in an interview with CNBC, stating "I think the markets got it wrong" about AI threatening software companies like ServiceNow. However, his comments did little to stem the selling pressure.

Friday: Hot Inflation Caps Difficult Month

Markets sold off sharply Friday following a Producer Price Index report that came in much hotter than expected, adding sticky inflation to the list of mounting concerns. The Dow plunged 521 points (1.05%) to 48,978, the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,879, and the Nasdaq lost 0.92% to 22,668.

The inflation data complicated the Fed's rate-cut calculus, particularly as growth slows. Block's announcement of laying off over 4,000 employees—nearly half its workforce—due to AI-driven efficiencies exacerbated fears about AI's disruptive economic impact. Financial stocks and cyclical sectors pulled back as economic concerns mounted.

February: A Challenging Month

February proved difficult for investors. The Nasdaq posted its worst monthly performance since March 2025, declining over 3%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF plummeted nearly 10% for the month, bringing year-to-date losses to approximately 23%. The S&P 500 recorded a loss of close to 1% in February.

Investor sentiment deteriorated significantly. The AAII survey showed bullish investors dropping to just 33.2% from 44.4% in late January, with nearly half of investors describing themselves as bullish as recently as mid-January. This shift reflects growing concerns about AI disruption, tariff uncertainty, and sticky inflation.

Bright Spots Amid the Turmoil

Not all news was negative. Corporate buyback authorizations surged to $233.3 billion in February—the largest February on record and third-largest month ever. Year-to-date announcements reached $327 billion, ahead of last year's pace. Salesforce announced a $50 billion authorization, Walmart $30 billion, and Verizon $25 billion, with analysts projecting $1.3 trillion in buybacks for 2026.

Copper continued its impressive run, with May contracts up over 2% in February and heading for their longest monthly advance since February 2011. Year-to-date, copper futures gained 6.4%, while the Global X Copper Miners ETF surged 12% for the month, over 30% year-to-date, and more than 140% over the past year.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Next week brings the crucial February jobs report on Friday, March 7, along with additional economic data. Markets will also digest the implications of Nvidia's results and assess whether AI concerns represent a fundamental reassessment or temporary volatility.

The tariff situation remains fluid with Trump's 15% global tariff now in effect despite the Supreme Court ruling. The European Commission requested "full clarity" on U.S. intentions, noting the current situation is "not conducive to delivering fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial transatlantic trade."

What We're Watching

Nearly 40% of the S&P 500's value is concentrated in megacap technology stocks. Many investors are rebalancing away from Big Tech toward sectors like materials, energy, infrastructure, industrials, healthcare, and consumer staples to reduce AI exposure and concentration risk.

The combination of disappointing Nvidia results, hot inflation data, AI disruption concerns, and tariff uncertainty creates a challenging environment. However, Wall Street's median forecast still projects the S&P 500 reaching 7,650 by year-end, implying nearly 12% upside from current levels.

We emphasize the importance of portfolio diversification, avoiding reactionary decisions, and maintaining focus on long-term objectives. Periods of volatility and uncertainty can create opportunities for disciplined investors.

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Important Disclosures

 Disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Please review your specific circumstances with us before making any changes to your portfolio.