Weekly Market Recap & Week Ahead

August 24-28, 2026

Here is a look back at last week in the markets, and a look ahead at what we are watching in the days to come, including two developing stories with the potential to touch both portfolios and household budgets: the renewed exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran, and the widening trade rift between the United States and Canada. As always, this recap is intended for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Last Week in the Markets

Equities closed the trading week of August 24 modestly higher overall, even after a pullback on the final day. According to CNBC, the S&P 500 fell on Friday, August 28, following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he cautioned that inflation “was running too hot,” but the index still posted a positive week. Earlier in the week, oil prices had eased, with crude dropping more than 3% on Tuesday, August 25, as the United States appeared to shift toward economic pressure rather than military action against Iran, a move that briefly calmed fears of a wider conflict, per CNBC.

Geopolitical & Energy Watch: The United States and Iran

That calm did not last. On Sunday, August 30, U.S. Central Command struck Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces it said were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the action as limited and precise, according to ABC News. Iran's government confirmed retaliating on Monday, August 31, with strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates reported intercepting a drone launched from Iranian territory. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country would give what he called “a decisive response to the aggressors,” while maintaining that Iran was not seeking war, per ABC News. Separately, CNBC reported that President Trump raised the possibility of striking Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub.

The market impact showed up first in energy prices. Brent crude climbed above $88 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate approached $86 on Monday morning, a jump of nearly 4% for October contracts, according to Yahoo Finance. U.S. stock futures slipped modestly on the news, with Dow futures down about 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down about 0.2%, and Nasdaq-100 futures down about 0.1%, though all three indexes remained on pace for a monthly gain heading into the last session of August. Higher oil prices also feed into inflation expectations, which matters given Chair Warsh's comments the prior Friday: Yahoo Finance reported that traders' odds of a Fed rate move at the September meeting shifted notably, with rate-hike bets rising to roughly 62%, up from about 40% a week earlier.

What comes next is still unfolding. Further escalation between the United States and Iran, particularly anything that threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, could keep energy prices elevated and add to inflation pressure just as the Federal Reserve weighs its next move. A de-escalation could ease some of that pressure instead. We are watching this closely, both for what it could mean for energy-related holdings and for the broader inflation and interest rate picture.

Trade Policy Watch: The United States and Canada

A second, quieter story could also reach household budgets and certain corners of the market in the months ahead: the deepening trade rift between the United States and Canada. Talks between the two countries broke down in late August. According to Al Jazeera, the United States had already placed a 50% tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, representing an estimated 5 to 5.5% of Canada's total exports to the United States. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended further negotiations, saying last-minute changes to the U.S. proposal were “unfair, uneconomic,” and that they called the reliability of any deal into question, per NPR. The U.S. Trade Representative's office countered that it had offered Canada better terms.

On August 25, Canada announced its own retaliatory tariffs, set to take effect September 8, targeting an estimated $20 billion a year in U.S. imports with tiered rates of 15%, 25%, and 50% on goods including steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics, according to NPR. Canada also earmarked C$7.5 billion to support workers and businesses affected by the dispute.

For consumers, the practical effect is likely to be higher prices on both sides of the border. In Canada, that could mean higher costs and thinner selection for U.S.-made appliances, electronics, and dairy products, along with potential strain on small and mid-sized businesses exposed to the U.S. market, which still receives an estimated 73% of Canadian exports, or roughly $409 billion a year, according to Al Jazeera. In the United States, consumers may see higher prices on Canadian imports such as wine, furniture, clothing, cement, and sporting goods, and the Business Roundtable has cautioned that the tariffs risk raising costs for American businesses and families.

For investors, sectors with meaningful cross-border exposure, including autos, building materials, steel, dairy, and other consumer goods, may be worth watching for potential earnings or supply chain effects as the new tariffs take hold in September. How any individual holding is affected will depend on its specific exposure, and we would welcome a conversation about what this could mean for your particular portfolio.

What We're Watching This Week

The coming week brings a fuller economic calendar after a relatively quiet stretch in late August:

•      ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected Tuesday, September 1

•      ADP private-sector payrolls, expected midweek

•      Weekly jobless claims and ISM Services PMI, expected Thursday, September 3

•      The August jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), expected Friday, September 4

All of this arrives ahead of the Federal Reserve's next meeting on September 17, where officials will weigh incoming labor market and inflation data, along with any further developments on the Iran and Canada fronts, as they consider their next move on interest rates. Canada's retaliatory tariffs are also set to take effect September 8, just after this week closes, which could keep the trade story in the headlines a while longer.

A Closing Note

Wewill continue to monitor both situations, along with the usual economic data, and will keep you updated as things develop. Being capable with your finances is not the same as being intentional with them, and staying informed is one more way to stay intentional, especially in a week like this one. Please reach out if you would like to talk through what any of this could mean for your specific plan.

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