Weekly Market Recap

Here's your weekly market recap for the week ending March 20, 2026:

The Big Picture

Markets closed out their fourth consecutive week of losses as geopolitical uncertainty, rising energy prices, and a cautious Federal Reserve continued to weigh on investor confidence. The S&P 500 fell 1.9% for the week, the Dow dropped 2.1%, and the Nasdaq shed 2.1%. All three major benchmarks are now trading near their lowest levels of 2026, having broken below their 200-day moving averages; a technically significant threshold that signals deepening market stress.

Equities

The week began with a brief burst of optimism as oil prices pulled back from their most extreme highs, sending the Dow up nearly 400 points on Monday. But the relief was short-lived. By Wednesday and Thursday, stocks reversed sharply as oil surged again and the Fed's tone rattled investors. The Magnificent Seven were largely in the red, with Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft each declining more than 1%. Nvidia was one of the few bright spots, edging higher as its GTC conference ran through the week and AI enthusiasm offered a momentary offset to the gloom.

On the earnings front, Micron delivered results that beat expectations, while Alibaba entered its report with a weak technical setup. FedEx and Darden Restaurants also reported, though neither was enough to move the broader needle. Beneath the surface, the Nasdaq posted 276 new 52-week low; a sobering sign of how broadly the selling pressure has spread.

Energy & Commodities

Oil remained the dominant story. Brent crude spiked above $110 mid-week after Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field (the world's largest) triggering retaliatory Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure across Gulf states, including Qatar. At its peak, Brent hit $119 a barrel before settling around $96-$100 by week's end. For context, oil was near $70 a barrel before the conflict began. That's a roughly 40% surge in a matter of weeks.

At the pump, drivers are feeling it directly. Gas prices nationally have risen 21% over the past month, with California hitting $5.66 a gallon and diesel exceeding $5 nationwide. Barclays estimates that if oil averages $100 for 2026, global growth will be 0.2 percentage points lower while headline inflation will be nearly a full point higher.

The Fed

Wednesday's FOMC decision was widely expected and delivered: the Fed held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, voting 11-1 to keep policy unchanged. Chair Powell acknowledged FOMC members were "less confident than usual" in their projections given the war's unpredictable economic ripple effects. Officials penciled in just one quarter-point cut for all of 2026 and one for 2027; a dramatically slower pace than markets had hoped for entering the year. Traders are now pricing in only a December cut.

Fixed Income

Treasury yields climbed again this week despite weak economic data, as energy-driven inflation fears overwhelmed any flight-to-safety bid. Rising yields continued to hammer credit-sensitive sectors and kept pressure on growth stocks. The bond market is increasingly pricing in a stagflationary scenario (slow growth, stubborn inflation) that puts the Fed in an impossible position.

A Note on Headline Fatigue

Let's be honest: it has been a lot. Between the Iran conflict, oil spikes, Fed uncertainty, soft jobs data, and a political environment that seems to generate a new market-moving headline every few hours; investors and advisors alike are exhausted. The Bank of America fund manager survey confirmed what many are feeling on the ground: the "frothy bull" sentiment of recent months has faded sharply, with global investors now turning decidedly bearish.

This kind of fatigue is real, and it matters. When investors are emotionally drained, they tend to make reactive decisions, selling into weakness, abandoning long-term plans, or simply freezing. The data suggests that periods of dislocation like this, while painful, have historically created some of the best long-term entry points. Staying grounded in fundamentals and tuning out the noise where possible — remains the most important thing clients can do right now. It's okay to acknowledge that this is hard. It is. But the plan still matters.

Looking Ahead

The week ahead brings flash U.S. PMI data, which will offer a real-time read on how businesses are coping with mounting uncertainty. Markets will also be watching for any developments on the Iran ceasefire front, as any sign of de-escalation could trigger a significant relief rally in both equities and oil.

Bottom line: Four straight weeks of losses, a Fed on hold, oil near $100, and sentiment at its worst levels of the year. The fundamentals of many companies remain sound, Q4 S&P 500 earnings grew 13.3% year over year, but macro fear is in the driver's seat for now. Stay the course.

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Important Disclosures

 Disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Please review your specific circumstances with us before making any changes to your portfolio.