Weekly Market Recap — Weekly Market Recap — Week Ending April 11, 2026

Today's Futures Outlook — Monday, April 13

Before diving into last week's recap, a heads up on this morning: futures are pointing sharply lower ahead of the open. Dow futures are down roughly 500 points (over 1%), with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures each off about 0.65%. Oil has surged back above $100 a barrel, with WTI jumping more than 7% to around $104. The catalyst: weekend peace talks in Islamabad collapsed without a deal. Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan empty-handed after Iranian officials refused to halt their pursuit of nuclear weapons, and Iran further demanded control of the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and access to frozen assets. President Trump responded by announcing a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz effective this morning, escalating the conflict significantly. It is going to be a bumpy open. The VIX is already elevated at 21.35. Bank earnings season kicks off today with Goldman Sachs, which may provide some grounding if results are strong.

The Big Picture — Last Week

Last week delivered the best weekly performance since November, and the market needed it badly. The catalyst was Wednesday's announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, brokered through Pakistan, which sent the Dow surging more than 1,300 points in a single session. The S&P 500 gained 3.6% for the week, the Nasdaq jumped 4.7%, and the Dow climbed 3%. It was a genuine exhale after six consecutive weeks of pain. As of Friday's close, the S&P 500 sat at 6,816 and the Dow at 47,916. The relief, however, proved fragile, as this morning's futures make clear.

Equities

The week was defined by the ceasefire announcement on Wednesday, which triggered the kind of explosive relief rally that tends to follow weeks of relentless selling. Airlines, travel stocks, and cruise lines soared. Carnival jumped 10%. United Airlines surged nearly 10%. GE Aerospace and Comfort Systems each rose around 7%. Semiconductor stocks came alive, with Nvidia and Broadcom leading gains into the end of the week.

On the earnings front, Levi Strauss reported a first-quarter beat on both the top and bottom lines, sending shares 11% higher after hours. Arm Holdings unveiled its first in-house CPU chip, receiving an upgrade from Raymond James with a 23% upside target cited. Braze surged 19% on a revenue beat. Delta Air Lines was a notable cautionary voice, with CEO Ed Bastian warning the carrier would "meaningfully reduce" near-term capacity growth plans due to surging jet fuel costs. The broader message from corporate America heading into earnings season is that companies can handle a short, sharp oil shock, but the longer this drags on, the harder the math becomes.

Friday finished slightly softer, with the S&P 500 dipping 0.11% and the Dow losing 269 points, as traders grew cautious holding positions into the weekend knowing the ceasefire talks in Islamabad were ongoing and the outcome uncertain.

Energy & Commodities

Oil came down meaningfully from its most extreme levels after the ceasefire was announced, with Brent settling around $108 by week's end while December futures traded down near $78, suggesting the market does believe oil prices will moderate over time if a deal eventually holds. WTI crude closed Friday near $96. For context, oil was around $70 before the war began in late February. The Strait of Hormuz partial reopening under the ceasefire terms provided some relief, though tanker flows remain well below normal. The energy sector is up 33% year to date, making it by far the best performing sector of 2026.

Bonds & The Fed

The ceasefire and modest oil pullback allowed bond markets to breathe. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 13 basis points on the week to 4.31%, a meaningful move in the right direction after the 30-year had briefly touched 5% the week prior. Equally notable, rate hike expectations that had crept above 50% probability quickly faded. Fed funds futures are now pricing in the possibility of at least one cut by year end again. Edward Jones summed it up well, noting that political incentives appear aligned to eventually deliver a durable resolution, and that a peace deal could shift attention back to corporate earnings fundamentals, which remain largely intact despite the energy shock.

That said, inflation data released last week delivered an uncomfortable reminder of what six weeks of $100+ oil does to consumer prices. The March CPI report showed the largest surge in prices in four years. Shelter inflation continued its welcome trend lower, and broader service prices were moderate, but energy and goods inflation is now fully showing up in the data. Q1 GDP is tracking at just 1.3% annualized according to the Atlanta Fed, down from 3% before the war began.

A Word on Headline Fatigue

Last week offered a genuine moment of hope, and then this morning reminded everyone why hope alone is not a strategy in this market. The Iran conflict has now been the central driver of asset prices for six weeks. Every ceasefire rumor, every Truth Social post, every Iranian state media denial has moved markets in both directions by hundreds of points. Clients who are watching their statements every day are understandably worn down.

The honest truth is that the underlying fundamentals of this economy remain more intact than the headlines suggest. Q4 S&P 500 earnings grew 13.3% year over year. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs in March. Retail sales were up 0.6% month over month. The economy was not broken before this war started, and a resolution, when it comes, has the potential to produce a meaningful and durable rally. The plan still matters. Staying invested and staying disciplined through this noise is exactly what long-term investing requires.

Looking Ahead

It is a critical week. Bank earnings season gets underway today with Goldman Sachs, followed by Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America Tuesday through Thursday, with Morgan Stanley and others rounding out the week. Netflix, BlackRock, Johnson & Johnson, PepsiCo, and Charles Schwab are also on the calendar. A strong earnings season could provide the fundamental anchor this market has been missing. On the economic calendar, March PPI comes Tuesday and the NFIB Small Business Index will offer a read on how Main Street is holding up. With the U.S. now announcing a naval blockade this morning, the geopolitical situation has intensified again. The April 21st ceasefire deadline looms, and markets will be watching every development closely.

Bottom line: Last week was the best week in months. This morning has already given some of it back. That is the nature of a headline-driven, geopolitically uncertain market. What remains true is that earnings season starts now, fundamentals are still standing, and history says this ends eventually. Stay disciplined.

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Important Disclosures

 Disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Please review your specific circumstances with us before making any changes to your portfolio.