Weekly Market Recap - Week Ending April 18, 2026Monday Morning Futures — April 20 Futures are lower heading into the open, and the reason is straightforward: the Strait of Hormuz closed again. As of this morning, Dow futures are off roughly 300 points S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are each down approximately 0.50%, and WTI crude is surging more than 7% back above $104 a barrel. The weekend's events wiped out much of Friday's optimism before the week even begins. The Big Picture It was a week of extraordinary highs and a gut-punch ending. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high above 7,000 mid-week, the Nasdaq surged nearly 7% on its longest winning streak since 2020, and major bank earnings delivered across the board. Then, in a now-familiar pattern, geopolitics took it back. Iran shut the Strait again on Saturday, Iranian gunboats fired on at least three tankers, and India summoned the Iranian ambassador after two of its flagged vessels were hit. The ceasefire expires Wednesday, April 21, and Trump has indicated he may not extend it. The Strait of Hormuz — Opened and Closed in Under 24 Hours This is the sequence that defines the week and the moment we are in. On Friday, Iran's Foreign Minister declared the Strait open to commercial shipping for the duration of a Lebanon ceasefire. Oil dropped 11%. Stocks rallied to records. Trump celebrated on Truth Social and called a peace deal "very close." It felt, briefly, like a turning point. Then Trump clarified the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain regardless. Iran called that a breach of the agreement. By Saturday morning, the IRGC declared the Strait had "returned to its previous state" and warned that any vessel approaching the waterway would be considered cooperation with the enemy. The Strait is closed again. Iran is demanding full lifting of the U.S. blockade, war reparations, nuclear program protections, and release of frozen assets. Those demands remain far from anything Washington has indicated it will accept. Equities and Earnings Despite the noise, the week delivered genuinely strong fundamental news. Goldman Sachs beat estimates by more than 7% with revenues up 14.4% year over year. Citigroup posted its highest quarterly revenue in a decade with net income up 42%. JPMorgan, Bank of America, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson all topped expectations. First-quarter S&P 500 earnings are now projected to grow 13% to 16% year over year, a four-year high. Netflix was the notable disappointment, falling 9% after weak second-quarter guidance and news that co-founder Reed Hastings plans to step down from the board. The earnings backdrop, broadly, remains solid. The Magnificent Seven are up nearly 18% from the March 30 low. Microsoft soared almost 14% on the week, its largest weekly gain since 2007. Tesla rallied 15%. This recovery has been faster than the post-Liberation Day bounce last year and the quickest 10-session run since the post-COVID rebound in April 2020. For investors who held through six straight weeks of losses, this week was the reward — though Monday morning is already testing that patience again. The Honest Assessment The market spent this week pricing in a resolution to the Iran conflict that has not yet materialized. The S&P 500 at all-time highs with the Strait of Hormuz closed, tankers under fire, and a ceasefire expiring Wednesday is a market making a very large bet on diplomacy. That bet may still prove correct. Pakistan is attempting to restart talks early this week. Trump says he expects good news. Both sides reportedly believe a deal is possible. But we have been here before, and the gap between the parties remains wide. The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% and raised its inflation projection to 4.4%. Citadel's Ken Griffin said plainly this week that if the Strait stays shut six to twelve months, global recession is unavoidable. We are approaching seven weeks of disruption with no resolution in hand. Looking Ahead The April 21 ceasefire deadline is the only thing that matters this week. Beyond that, earnings continue with GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, 3M, and others on the calendar. The week ahead will be decisive. Any credible progress toward a deal could erase today's losses quickly. Any further escalation and we revisit the lows of late March in short order. Bottom line: Records set. Then the Strait closed again. Futures lower. That is where we are. The fundamentals of corporate America are holding. The geopolitical situation is not resolved. Stay disciplined and resist the urge to react to every headline. This market has punished both panic selling and premature optimism repeatedly over the past seven weeks. Weekly Market Recap Link Work With Me Important Disclosures Disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Please review your specific circumstances with us before making any changes to your portfolio.
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