Weekly Market Recap — Week Ending March 27, 2026The Big Picture Wall Street logged its fifth consecutive week of losses, the longest weekly losing streak since 2022, as the Iran conflict continued to dictate market direction. The S&P 500 fell 2.1% for the week and closed at a seven-month low. The Nasdaq entered correction territory, now down more than 13% from its October peak. The Dow tumbled 793 points on Friday alone, officially crossing into correction as well. Only the S&P 500 has narrowly avoided that label, for now. Equities The week was a rollercoaster tied almost entirely to diplomatic headlines. Monday surged after President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran were in "very good and productive" talks, briefly sending Dow futures up over 1,000 points. By Tuesday, Iran's parliament speaker flatly denied any negotiations were underway, calling the reports "fake news used to manipulate financial markets," and stocks gave back much of the gains. Wednesday offered another brief lift when news broke that the U.S. had sent Iran a formal 15-point ceasefire proposal, but Iran rejected it, countering with its own five-point plan that included maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz. Markets swung violently with every headline. By Friday, the mood had darkened again as Trump extended the strike deadline on Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6, which the market read not as reassurance but as confirmation that no deal is imminent. Tech bore the brunt of the selling. Amazon fell nearly 4%, Salesforce dropped 3.4%, Visa declined 3.4%, Microsoft fell 2.5%, and Alphabet shed 2.5%. Meta was an additional casualty, dropping 12% since Wednesday following layoffs and a court ruling labeling its social media platforms as addictive. Energy was the lone bright spot, with Exxon Mobil gaining 3.5% as WTI crude topped $99 a barrel. Energy & Commodities Oil whipsawed again. Brent briefly dropped more than 10% on ceasefire optimism Monday, then rebounded sharply as negotiations stalled. By Friday, Brent was topping $112 and WTI settled near $96, with analysts at Macquarie estimating WTI will average around $83 per barrel for the full year, up from their prior forecast of $58. Approximately 17.8 million barrels per day that would normally flow through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted, with an estimated 500 million barrels cut off since the conflict began. The energy shock is now rippling into broader commodity markets, affecting LNG, sulfur, urea, ammonia, and aluminum, with particularly acute second-order effects on Asian economies heavily dependent on Middle Eastern jet fuel and diesel. Bonds & The Rate Picture The bond market is flashing warning signs. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.48%, its highest level since July, before settling around 4.43%. The 30-year yield briefly touched 5%, a significant psychological threshold. Critically, futures markets now place a 52% probability on at least one rate hike by year end, the first time that figure has crossed 50%. That represents a dramatic shift in expectations. Just weeks ago, markets were pricing in rate cuts. The word "stagflation" is no longer being used cautiously. It is now a mainstream concern. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson reinforced the cautious tone on Friday, noting that inflation running above 2% is making her "more apprehensive about policy" and leaving little room for the Fed to support a weakening economy. A Word on Headline Fatigue Let's acknowledge what many clients are feeling right now: this is exhausting. For weeks, markets have opened on hope and closed on disappointment. Every Truth Social post, every Iranian state media denial, every oil price spike has felt urgent and consequential in the moment but has largely produced one thing: volatility without resolution. The political environment is adding another layer. Between the war, the Fed's impossible position, China opening a trade probe against the U.S. in response to tariffs, the partial government shutdown, and a cascade of daily headlines that seem designed to unsettle, it's a lot for anyone to absorb, let alone invest calmly through. Here's the grounding thought: markets have weathered every previous geopolitical crisis and come out the other side. The S&P 500 is still only down about 3% year-to-date at the index level, even as individual sectors have been hit hard. Beneath the surface, manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in March, jobless claims remain low at 210,000, and Q4 S&P 500 earnings grew 13.3% year over year. The fundamentals of the economy have not collapsed. Fear is driving this more than reality. Staying the course, tuning out the noise where possible, and avoiding reactive decisions remains the most important thing any of us can do right now. Looking Ahead — A Short Week With markets closed this Friday, April 2nd for Good Friday, it will be a compressed three-day trading week running March 30 through April 1. The key focus will be President Trump's April 6th deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and markets will be on edge as that date approaches. Consumer confidence data and manufacturing activity readings are also due, which will provide the first clear economic data reflecting the full impact of the oil shock. Any credible diplomatic progress on the Iran front would likely spark a sharp relief rally. Bottom line: Five straight weeks of losses. The Dow and Nasdaq in correction. Oil near $100. A Fed that may be forced to hike rather than cut. It's a difficult environment, and it's okay to say so. The plan still matters. Stay disciplined. Weekly Market Recap Link Work With Me Important Disclosures Disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Please review your specific circumstances with us before making any changes to your portfolio.
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