Weekly Market Recap: Week Ending May 22, 2026Today's Outlook — Tuesday, May 26This Morning Futures are pointing higher heading into today's open despite a complicated overnight. Dow futures are up roughly 234 points, S&P 500 futures are up 0.7%, and Nasdaq futures are advancing 1.1%. The reason markets are shrugging off the news is the news itself: Trump said Monday that Iran talks are "proceeding nicely," and Polymarket traders are pricing a 91% probability the S&P 500 opens higher today. But here is what actually happened: U.S. Central Command conducted "self-defense strikes" targeting Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran early this morning, even as Iran's Foreign Minister sat at the peace table in Doha. The IRGC has declared a "legitimate right" to respond. Secretary Rubio said the deal could still come together "in a few days." Oil is mixed, with Brent up modestly and WTI pulling back. The market is once again betting on diplomacy winning out. That bet has been right more often than not this spring. Tuesday will test it again. Last Week — The Big PictureEight consecutive weeks of gains. The Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time in history, closing Friday at 50,579. The S&P 500 added 0.9% on the week and closed at a record 7,473.47. The Russell 2000 gained 0.91% on Friday as Treasury yields pulled back slightly. Broad S&P 500 earnings growth for the quarter came in at 27.7%, the strongest since Q4 2021. It was, on paper, a strong week. Nvidia The headline event was Nvidia's Wednesday night earnings report. Revenue hit a record $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, well ahead of the $78.8 billion estimate. EPS came in at $1.87 versus a $1.76 forecast. Net income of $58.3 billion nearly tripled year over year. The company announced an $80 billion buyback and raised its dividend 25-fold. CEO Jensen Huang said, "demand has gone parabolic" and declared "agentic AI has arrived." The stock dipped. It is now the fourth consecutive quarter Nvidia has slipped after a beat-and-raise report. The company had run 20% in the weeks before the print, and perfection was already priced in. The business remains extraordinary. The short-term reaction is a valuation story, not a business one. Other Standouts Qualcomm surged 18% on a major Stellantis partnership expansion. Ralph Lauren climbed 14% on strong earnings and raised guidance. Intuit dropped 14% after announcing 3,000 job cuts to focus on AI, a signal that AI-driven layoffs no longer get a free pass from investors. SoftBank rose more than 11% on continued AI infrastructure optimism. The Fed Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair at a White House ceremony Friday. He inherits a 10-year yield near 4.56%, a 45% probability of a rate hike priced in this year, and inflation still heavily distorted by $4.54 per gallon gas. His first public remarks this week will be watched closely by every fixed income trader in the country. The Week Ahead With Monday a holiday, this is a four-day week. The Iran situation is the dominant variable, and this morning made it more complicated, not less. PCE inflation data Friday is the key economic release of the week. Warsh's first remarks as chair are expected. And a handful of retail and industrial names still round out earnings season. Bottom line: Eight straight weeks of gains. The Dow at 50,000. Nvidia delivered one of the greatest quarters in corporate history. And this morning we struck Iran while their negotiators were in Doha. The market is betting the deal still gets done. We will know more by the close. Weekly Market Recap Link Work With Me Important Disclosures
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