Weekly Market Recap& Week Ahead

July 6 – 17, 2026

INDEX PERFORMANCE

Major U.S. indexes closed a choppy but ultimately positive week, though the path there was not a straight line. The S&P 500 gained 0.42% on Friday alone to close at 7,575.39, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.29% to close at 26,281.61, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.29% to close at 52,637.01. For the week overall, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each posted gains in the 1%+ range, while the Dow lagged after retreating from a mid-week record above the 53,000 level. This divergence is worth noting: it reflected a rotation back into large-cap technology names after a period of profit-taking, rather than a broad-based pullback in risk appetite.

Elsewhere, gold slipped to $4,112.62 an ounce, suggesting somewhat reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets during the week, while the 10-Year Treasury yield edged up to 4.56%, a move that can reflect shifting expectations around the path of interest rates and inflation.

SECTOR THEMES

● Technology and artificial intelligence: This remained the most dynamic corner of the market. Semiconductor and chip-related names sold off mid-week as investors booked profits following a strong run in the first half of the year, then rebounded on renewed optimism, aided by reports of elevated insider buying among technology company executives and continued investor interest in the economics of AI infrastructure spending. For clients with meaningful technology sector exposure, this kind of volatility is a reminder that leadership sectors can move sharply in both directions even within a single trading week.

● IPO market activity: SK Hynix (SKHYV) completed the largest-ever U.S. public listing by a foreign company, raising $26.5 billion and surging on its trading debut. Large, well-received IPOs like this one are often viewed as a signal of healthy investor risk appetite and functioning capital markets, though individual new listings can carry elevated short-term volatility.

● Labor market data: June's nonfarm payrolls report came in meaningfully below expectations, with job gains concentrated primarily in the health care sector. At the same time, average hourly earnings grew 3.5% year-over-year and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. Taken together, this presents a mixed picture: a labor market that is cooling in terms of hiring breadth, but not one showing signs of broad-based weakness or rising joblessness.

● Geopolitical and energy backdrop: Renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz kept oil markets on edge for portions of the week, though crude prices eased somewhat as diplomatic talks continued. Energy markets remain sensitive to developments in this region, and clients with energy sector exposure or broader portfolio sensitivity to oil prices may want to keep this on their radar in the weeks ahead.

FED COMMENTARY

Inflation remains a central theme. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, stood at 3.4% as of the end of May and is expected to remain above the Fed's 2% long-term target through the remainder of the year. Newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at an international conference, offered limited detail but noted that price levels remain elevated, a comment that markets interpreted as leaning hawkish.

Perhaps most notable is a shift in market expectations themselves: futures markets are now pricing in a 61% probability of a rate hike, rather than a cut, at the Fed's September meeting. This marks a meaningful change in tone from earlier-year expectations of continued easing, and it is a dynamic we will continue to monitor closely given its potential implications for both fixed income and equity positioning.

WEEK AHEAD: JULY 13 – 17, 2026

This is shaping up to be one of the more consequential weeks of the quarter, bringing together peak bank earnings season, a closely watched inflation report, and the new Fed Chair's first testimony before Congress.

● Tuesday, 7/14: June CPI data will be released, with consensus expectations calling for headline inflation to ease to 3.7% on an annual basis while core CPI remains comparatively elevated. The same morning, several of the largest U.S. banks report second-quarter earnings, offering an early read on consumer spending, credit conditions, and business activity. The Fed Chair also begins his first semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress, which may offer additional clarity on the central bank's thinking heading into the fall.

● Wednesday, 7/15: A broad set of large-cap companies across semiconductors, healthcare, and financial services report earnings, alongside June producer price index data and weekly crude oil inventory figures. Congressional testimony continues.

● Thursday, 7/16: June retail sales figures, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and weekly initial jobless claims are all released, providing further insight into consumer health and regional manufacturing activity. Notable earnings are also expected in streaming media, semiconductors, and airlines.

● Fed communication: Beyond the Chair's testimony, several regional Federal Reserve presidents are scheduled to speak throughout the week. This comes against the backdrop of June's FOMC meeting minutes, which showed roughly half of Fed officials now anticipate at least one rate hike before year-end, a notable shift from the easing bias that characterized much of the prior two years.

What We're Watching

Whether bank management commentary on net interest margin and credit quality continues to support the broader "soft landing" narrative for the U.S. economy; how markets absorb a CPI print arriving squarely amid this hawkish repricing of Fed expectations; and whether the technology and AI infrastructure trade can sustain its late-week rebound as more semiconductor earnings come into view. As always, single data points and individual earnings reports are best interpreted within the context of a longer-term financial plan rather than as signals for short-term portfolio changes.

Weekly Market Recap Link

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