Weekly Market Recap: Week Ending May 29, 2026

The Big Picture

A shortened holiday week but a full-sized rally. Despite trading only four days due to Memorial Day on Monday, markets pushed to fresh all-time highs across the board, capping off what turned out to be a stellar month of May. The S&P 500 notched its ninth consecutive week of gains, its longest winning streak in years, fueled by an unstoppable AI earnings wave, easing oil prices, and growing optimism that a peace deal with Iran may finally be within reach.

Index Performance

For the week, the Nasdaq led with a gain of more than 2%, closing at 26,972. The S&P 500 added more than 1% to finish at a record 7,580, and the Dow gained less than 1% to close at 51,032, crossing above 50,000 for the first time this month. For the month of May, the numbers were even more impressive: the Nasdaq surged over 8%, the S&P 500 climbed 5%, and the Dow posted nearly a 3% gain. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund hit a new 52-week high Friday and finished May up nearly 20% for the month alone. WTI crude oil slipped to around $87.93 on Friday, down sharply from its peak above $111, as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran showed meaningful progress.

The AI Infrastructure Story Broadens

The week's biggest market moment had nothing to do with semiconductors or hyperscalers. Dell Technologies surged nearly 33% on Friday, its best single-day performance on record, after reporting a first-quarter beat on both the top and bottom lines and raising its full-year guidance. The move sent a powerful signal: the AI trade is no longer confined to chips and memory. It is now spreading across the full infrastructure stack, encompassing servers, storage, networking, and enterprise hardware. As one strategist put it, "Dell is like the poster child for the AI broadening earnings story. We started with chips, memory, but it's really now about the broad kind of AI infrastructure stack."

Snowflake also soared, rising more than 40% across the abbreviated week after its own strong earnings, making it one of the best performers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on the week. Micron jumped 19% Tuesday and topped a $1 trillion market cap as UBS reiterated a more than 100% upside price target, citing long-term agreements that position Micron well for the AI memory cycle. Qualcomm added 3%.

Not everything worked. Cloudflare fell nearly 14% after announcing 1,100 layoffs, attributed to rising internal AI usage, spooking investors despite solid underlying results. Intel was downgraded by Northland Capital Markets on concerns that its outsized data center spending is falling off.

Iran and Oil

The week's most consequential story away from earnings was the evolving Iran peace dynamic. Oil prices continued to drift lower, with Brent crude falling more than 5% on the week and WTI settling around $96. The drop followed signals that the U.S. and Iran have "mostly agreed" on the terms of a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire. Iranian state television reported that Tehran had committed to restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to prewar levels within one month of a final agreement. The White House called that specific report a "complete fabrication," though Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that talks have made real progress and said Trump will give diplomacy "every chance to succeed."

The week was not without volatility on the geopolitical front. American forces launched fresh strikes on an Iranian military site believed to threaten U.S. troops and commercial shipping, and Iranian drones were intercepted near the Strait. On Wednesday a bogus report of an imminent Iran peace deal briefly sent markets to session highs before being walked back, leading to accusations in the press that the report may have been seeded by parties with a market interest. Despite the noise, the broader trend in oil was lower, and the market largely looked through the day-to-day headline swings.

PCE Inflation

Thursday's PCE report was the week's key macro data point. April PCE rose 0.4% month over month and 3.8% year over year, the highest level in nearly three years, confirming the inflation picture remains uncomfortable. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose a more modest 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually. The market's reaction was constructive: the core reading offered some reassurance that the Iran-driven energy shock has not yet fully bled into broader price pressures, which kept rate hike odds from spiking further. The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its June meeting remained near 99%.

May in Review

May proved the skeptics wrong. Heading into the month, "Sell in May" was a popular refrain. Instead, the market delivered one of its strongest monthly performances in years. The AI investment supercycle, improving geopolitics around Iran, a new Fed chair arriving without market disruption, and continued earnings strength combined to push all three major averages to record highs. The S&P 500 is now up approximately 11% year to date, fully erasing the damage from the Iran war's early shock.

Week Ahead — June 1-5, 2026

The Calendar

Monday brings ISM Manufacturing for May and Construction Spending data. Tuesday features JOLTS Job Openings for April, along with earnings from Ulta Beauty, Palo Alto Networks, and Dollar General. Wednesday delivers ADP private payrolls and ISM Services PMI. Thursday sees Initial Jobless Claims and Factory Orders. Friday is the marquee day of the week, with the May Nonfarm Payrolls report, the unemployment rate, and Average Hourly Earnings all due at 8:30 a.m. On the earnings front, Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports Monday and Broadcom reports later in the week in what will be the most anticipated tech result of the month.

Key Themes to Watch

The May jobs report on Friday. Economists expect the U.S. economy added approximately 96,000 jobs in May, down from 115,000 in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%. A soft number could reignite rate cut hopes and give new Fed Chair Warsh room to lean dovish in his early tenure. A strong print keeps the "higher for longer" narrative firmly in place. Either way, it will be one of the most closely watched data points before the Fed's June 16-17 meeting.

Broadcom earnings. The AI semiconductor infrastructure story that propelled Dell, Snowflake, and Micron this week arrives at Broadcom's doorstep. As a critical supplier of custom AI chips and networking infrastructure to hyperscalers, Broadcom's results and guidance will be a bellwether for where the AI capex cycle heads next. Positioning is skewed to the upside, which leaves the stock vulnerable to a sharp move in either direction if results miss or guidance disappoints.

Iran peace timeline pressure. The IEA warned this week that oil markets could enter a "red zone" as summer travel demand builds and global stocks deplete. Analysts at MUFG noted that full normalization of Middle East oil supply may not occur until 2027 given the scale of disruptions. With the U.S. and Iran reportedly close on a 60-day ceasefire extension MOU, any formal announcement this week could send oil sharply lower and equity markets sharply higher. One strategist summed it up cleanly: "The real bet you have to make is that we're coming to a resolution on Iran in the next two or three weeks. I really don't think we could be talking about the Strait being closed in October without a serious market reaction."

Seasonal headwinds. June is historically the worst month for stocks in a midterm election year, and with nine consecutive weeks of gains and valuations stretched, many strategists expect a period of consolidation even if the fundamental backdrop remains constructive.

Bottom line: May was a month that rewarded bulls at every turn. June arrives with the AI broadening story gaining momentum, oil continuing to ease, and a peace deal with Iran closer than it has been at any point since the war began. The jobs report and Broadcom will tell us whether this market has another leg higher, or whether it needs to catch its breath before the next move.

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