Weekly Market Recap & Week Ahead

July 20-24, 2026

THE WEEK IN BRIEF

Markets finished a second consecutive week lower, with the pressure concentrated in technology and semiconductors while the broader market held up comparatively well. Three forces drove the tape: rising oil prices tied to escalating Middle East conflict, a jump in Treasury yields to their highest levels in roughly eighteen months, and investor questions about the scale of artificial intelligence capital spending following two closely watched earnings reports.

INDEX PERFORMANCE

Closing levels on Friday, July 24, 2026 (Source: Associated Press market data via LancasterOnline; CNBC):

S&P 500: 7,411.98, up 3.68 points, or less than 0.1%, on Friday
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,947.25, up 235.60 points, or 0.5%, on Friday
Nasdaq Composite: 24,975.82, down 161.87 points, or 0.6%, on Friday
Russell 2000: 2,930.00, down 10.16 points, or 0.3%, on Friday

For the five-day period, all three major averages declined. Measured against the July 17 closing levels reported by Finance in Review (S&P 500 at 7,457.69; Dow at 52,146.42), the S&P 500 declined approximately 0.6% and the Dow declined approximately 0.4%. Yahoo Finance reported the Nasdaq Composite led the weekly declines at approximately 2%.

Year to date through July 24, the Associated Press reported the S&P 500 up 8.3%, the Dow up 8.1%, the Nasdaq up 7.5%, and the Russell 2000 up 18.1%.

WHAT DROVE THE WEEK

Artificial intelligence spending came under scrutiny. Alphabet and Tesla both reported second quarter results on Wednesday afternoon. CNBC reported Alphabet shares fell 7.1% on Thursday, its largest single-day decline since May 2025, and Tesla declined sharply on results that came in below expectations. Edward Jones noted that Alphabet's earnings were broadly in line with estimates after excluding a gain on its SpaceX stake, and that investor attention focused instead on management raising its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion. Yahoo Finance reported the largest technology companies collectively shed close to $800 billion in market value on Thursday.

The educational point here is worth pausing on. The market did not react to a profit shortfall. It reacted to a spending increase. That is a shift in what investors are choosing to focus on, from the promise of the investment to the return on it, and it is the kind of change in market psychology that can persist for more than one earnings cycle.

Energy prices moved against inflation progress. Brent crude traded above $100 per barrel during the week following reported attacks on commercial tankers, before retreating almost 4% on Friday to settle at $96.78, according to the Associated Press. The Motley Fool reported WTI crude at $90.12 at Friday's close. Oil finished higher on the week overall.

Yields rose to multi-month highs. CNBC reported the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.7% on Thursday, the highest level since January 2025, before easing to approximately 4.69% on Friday. The 2-year note ended at 4.33%, per Advisor Perspectives. Rising yields tend to weigh most heavily on longer-duration growth companies, which is consistent with where the week's weakness showed up.

Breadth was better than the headlines suggested. Investrade reported that nearly all eleven S&P 500 sectors finished Friday higher, led by real estate, materials, health care, and consumer staples, with technology the notable exception. This is a useful reminder that index-level results and portfolio-level experience are not always the same thing.

Other markets. Gold settled at approximately $4,070 per ounce Friday, per Investrade. The U.S. dollar index posted its largest weekly gain since mid-June, up approximately 0.7%.

THE WEEK AHEAD: JULY 27 TO 31

This is one of the densest calendars of the year. Four scheduled items are worth knowing about in advance.

Monday, July 27: June durable goods orders, preliminary (Source: CNBC economic calendar).

Tuesday, July 28: Consumer Confidence for July. FOMC meeting begins.

Wednesday, July 29: The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting, with the policy statement and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow. Kiplinger reported that as of July 24, CME FedWatch showed a 64.2% probability the Committee holds rates steady, down from 87.2% one week earlier. Yardeni Research noted that the June Summary of Economic Projections showed nine of nineteen officials anticipating a rate increase this year, which suggests the possibility of a divided vote regardless of the outcome. Microsoft and Meta report after the close.

Thursday, July 30: Advance estimate of second quarter GDP. The Bank of England announces its policy decision. Apple and Amazon report after the close.

Friday, July 31: June PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. The Bank of Japan announces its policy decision. Month end.

Yardeni Research noted that Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon together represent roughly 17% of S&P 500 market capitalization, so the second half of the week carries meaningful index-level significance.

HOW WE ARE THINKING ABOUT IT

A few observations, offered for education rather than as a forecast or a recommendation to take any action.

First, two down weeks after a strong first half is not, by itself, a signal about anything. Markets that have advanced meaningfully tend to have periods where they consolidate, and those periods are uncomfortable by design.

Second, the interaction between oil prices, inflation data, and interest rate policy is the variable to watch over the coming months rather than over the coming days. Energy costs feed into inflation with a lag, which means Friday's PCE reading reflects a different oil price environment than the one we are in today.

Third, this week is a reminder of why concentration risk deserves attention. When a small number of companies account for a large share of index value, index performance and diversified portfolio performance can diverge in either direction.

Finally, seasonality. CNBC, citing Bank of America data, noted that August through October has historically been the weakest three-month stretch for the S&P 500, with the index higher approximately 55.1% of the time during that window. Historical patterns are observations about the past and do not predict future results. They are context, not a plan.

If your circumstances have changed, or if recent volatility has you reconsidering how much risk feels appropriate for you, that is always a conversation worth having. Please reach out to schedule a complimentary review.

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