What Happened in the Markets Last WeekWeek ended Friday, September 25, 2026 | Prepared Monday, September 28, 2026 THE SHORT VERSION Stocks had their first good week in three. Technology led the way. Oil prices came down, because Iran offered to reopen a shipping route it had been blocking. But borrowing costs went the other way. A key interest rate that drives mortgages hit its highest level since 2007. People are still feeling gloomy about prices, and they expect prices to keep rising. This week is a big one for news: an inflation report midweek and the monthly jobs report on Friday. Stocks went up. That is the good news. Last week was the first winning week for the market in three weeks. The S&P 500 rose about 1.2 percent, the Nasdaq rose about 2.1 percent, and the Dow rose about 0.3 percent. (1) (2) Most of that came from technology companies, where there is a lot of enthusiasm right now about artificial intelligence. But look one layer down and it is less cheerful. An index of smaller American companies, the Russell 2000, actually fell about 0.8 percent on the week. Utilities and real estate fell too. (1) (3) So a handful of very large companies carried the market up while a lot of other companies went down. If you only read the headline, you would miss that. The part that matters more to your household While stocks were rising, the cost of borrowing money was also rising. The 10 year Treasury yield finished the week at 5.18 percent. That is its highest level since 2007. (4) Last week I mentioned this is the number that drives mortgage rates, not the Federal Reserve's rate. It has now moved up again. In plain terms, that means a home loan is more expensive this week than it was last week, even though the Federal Reserve did not do anything new. The same is true for other long term borrowing. There is another side to this. When those rates rise, banks and money market accounts generally start paying more on savings. Higher rates hurt if you are borrowing and help if you are saving. Most households are doing some of both. A short note on why rising rates pushed some stocks down. Utilities, real estate and smaller companies tend to carry more debt or pay steady dividends. When safe bonds start paying 5 percent, those investments look less attractive by comparison, and their prices often fall. That is what happened last week. Some relief at the gas pump Oil prices fell last week. The reason was diplomatic rather than economic. Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route it had been restricting, within seven days, and there were reports of a possible step by step agreement with the United States. (5) Oil dropped below 98 dollars a barrel on that news. (6) This is genuinely good news if it holds. Energy prices have been the main force pushing up the cost of everything else. But an offer is not a deal, and nothing has been signed. Prices moved on hope, and hope can reverse. How people are actually feeling There is a long running survey that asks Americans how they feel about the economy. The final reading for September came in at 48.1, down from 51.7 in August. (7) The same survey asks people what they expect prices to do. They said they expect prices to rise about 4.6 percent over the next year, and about 3.4 percent a year further out. (7) That second number is the one economists watch closely. When people start expecting prices to keep climbing, they tend to behave accordingly, asking for higher pay and accepting higher prices, which can make inflation harder to bring down. It is one of the reasons the Federal Reserve is being cautious. This week is a busy one After a quiet stretch, two important reports land in the next few days. Midweek. The inflation measure the Federal Reserve actually uses to make decisions, called PCE, covering August. Note that different outlets have listed this for Wednesday and for Thursday, so the exact day may shift. (8) Friday, October 2. The monthly jobs report for September.
Economists expect roughly 100,000 new jobs, down from 162,000 in August, and
expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent. (9) Forecasts are often wrong, sometimes badly. August was a good example, when the number came in far above what economists expected. These are estimates, not results. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak this week. (10) Their comments are opinions, not decisions, and they frequently disagree with one another. Five things worth checking None of these are urgent. They are simply sensible to look at when borrowing costs are moving. ▪ What your savings is earning. This is the one that has actually improved. If cash is sitting in an account paying close to nothing, it is worth knowing what it could be earning instead. That matters especially if you are holding a larger balance after a divorce, a business sale, a severance package or an inheritance. ▪ Any mortgage or home decision on your calendar. Rates moved up again last week. If a purchase, a sale or a refinance is coming, it is worth understanding the current cost and your alternatives in light of your own situation. ▪ What you actually own. A week where large technology rose and smaller companies fell is a good reminder that your account may not resemble the headline. Spreading money across different types of investments can reduce how much any one outcome affects you. It does not remove risk, and in a bad market many things can fall together. ▪ Your credit card balances. These tend to follow the Federal Reserve's rate closely, and that rate went up two weeks ago. ▪ Your household budget, if fuel costs have been squeezing it. Last week brought some relief, but nothing about that is settled yet. Where these numbers come from Each figure above is numbered so you can see exactly where it came from. (1) Weekly index moves for September 21 to 25, 2026: S&P 500 up 1.21 percent to 7,743.41, Nasdaq Composite up 2.06 percent to 27,068.72, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.28 percent to 51,828.62, Russell 2000 down 0.80 percent. Portfolio Terminal week in review, September 25, 2026, and TradingKey weekly report, September 25, 2026. (2) First winning week in three, with the Dow ending a three week losing streak. STL.News, September 26, 2026, and Yahoo Finance, September 25, 2026. (3) Weekly sector moves: utilities down 3.87 percent and real estate down 2.28 percent. Portfolio Terminal, September 25, 2026. (4) 10 year Treasury yield closing at 5.184 percent on September 25, 2026, up from 4.998 percent a week earlier, described as the highest close since July 2007. Portfolio Terminal, September 25, 2026, and Yahoo Finance, September 25, 2026. (5) Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, and reports of a possible phased agreement with the United States. The CoreQuant Wall Street Wrap, September 25, 2026. (6) Crude oil falling below 98 dollars a barrel during the week. TradingKey weekly report, September 25, 2026. (7) University of Michigan final September consumer sentiment reading of 48.1, compared with 51.7 in August, with one year inflation expectations of 4.6 percent and longer run expectations of 3.4 percent. Weekly market summary published September 25, 2026, citing the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. (8) August Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, scheduled for midweek. Sources list different days: KC Trades and Gotrade list Wednesday, September 30, while Kiplinger lists Thursday, October 1. Confirm against the Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule. (9) September employment report scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026, with consensus expectations of about 100,000 jobs added, down from 162,000 in August, and an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, up from 4.1 percent. Trading Economics week ahead, September 25, 2026. Consensus expectations are estimates by economists, not official figures or forecasts by this firm. (10) Scheduled appearances by Federal Reserve officials during the week of September 28, per the Federal Reserve Board calendar as listed by Vanderbilt Report, September 27, 2026. Weekly Market Recap Link About Stacey Important Disclosures
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