Weekly Market Recap — Week Ending June 26, 2026

I hope this finds you well as we head into the Fourth of July holiday week. Here is a look at where things stand in the markets and what we are watching in the days ahead.

A Pause After a Strong Run

After eight consecutive weeks of gains, the market took a breath last week. The S&P 500 was down approximately 1.9%, the Nasdaq pulled back 4.6%, and the Dow held its ground with a small 0.6% gain. The headline numbers may sound concerning, but underneath the surface, this kind of pullback can be healthy. Investors rotated out of the high-flying technology names that have led much of the year's rally and into other sectors of the economy, including healthcare, industrials, and financials. By the end of the week, more than 63% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 50-day average, a sign that strength is broadening beyond a handful of mega-cap technology names.

Why Did Tech Pull Back?

A few storylines converged. Reports emerged that OpenAI may be delaying its public offering into next year, which raised some questions about the pace of AI-related spending. Apple and Microsoft both announced price increases on consumer products, citing higher component costs. And after a remarkable run for the largest technology companies, some investors simply chose to take profits. Importantly, the long-term story around artificial intelligence and technology innovation remains intact. This pullback feels much more like a healthy reset than a fundamental change in direction.

Encouraging News on Iran and Oil

There is meaningful progress to share on the geopolitical front. The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and tanker traffic is now flowing largely unimpeded. Oil prices have fallen back to around $70 per barrel, a striking improvement from the $120 highs we saw just over a month ago. Direct talks are expected to continue this week, with Qatar facilitating work on the details of a broader peace framework. We are watching this carefully, as continued progress here would relieve significant pressure on energy prices and inflation.

The Economy Looks Resilient

Several encouraging data points came in this week. First-quarter GDP was revised upward to 2.1%, well above earlier estimates. Manufacturing and services activity both expanded more than expected. Consumer income and spending each grew 0.7%, suggesting households are continuing to navigate this environment thoughtfully. Inflation, as measured by the Fed's preferred gauge, came in essentially as expected. The picture overall is one of an economy that continues to grow at a steady pace, even with the various headwinds we have all been reading about.

A Note from the New Fed Chair

Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair, gave his first major remarks this past week. His tone was more cautious than some investors had expected, and he reminded markets that the path forward on interest rates will depend on continued progress on inflation. We will all be paying close attention to his communication style and approach in the months ahead.

The Week Ahead

This is a holiday-shortened week. The stock market will be closed Friday, July 3 in observance of Independence Day. Trading volumes typically thin out leading up to the holiday, which can sometimes result in slightly larger price swings than usual on relatively small news. We will be watching the June jobs report, which is being released a day early on Thursday due to the holiday, along with continued progress on the Iran peace framework.

The Bottom Line

Last week's pullback came after an extraordinary run, and the rotation into more defensive areas of the market is a sign of healthy underlying conditions. The economy continues to grow, inflation continues to moderate, and the geopolitical picture is genuinely improving. There will always be short-term volatility and headlines that test our patience, but the fundamentals supporting long-term investment growth remain in place.

As always, if you have any questions about your portfolio or how recent events relate to your personal financial plan, please do not hesitate to reach out. I am here to help you stay grounded in what matters most: your long-term goals.

Wishing you and your family a safe, restful, and happy Fourth of July holiday.

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